• MORNING CONSULT ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE

    Post-Election U.S. Consumer Confidence Dips as Drop Among GOP Outpaces Rise Among Democrats

    Updated: November 10, 2020
    This chart displays the ICS, a measurement of consumer sentiment. Higher numbers indicate greater confidence.

     

    Welcome to Morning Consult’s U.S. consumer confidence dashboard, powered by Economic Intelligence. Every week, this page will update with the latest national data and insights from our economic team. Additionally, state-level data and findings will be updated once a month.

    Morning Consult surveys around 6,000 U.S. consumers every day on their views regarding current and future personal financial conditions and business conditions in the country as a whole. The results from those survey interviews are inputted into the Morning Consult Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS), which rises as consumer confidence increases. In addition to the ICS, our overall measurement for consumer confidence, Morning Consult uses the responses to track consumer sentiment regarding just the current economic conditions (the ICC) and just expectations for future conditions (the ICE).

    This is just a small sliver of the economic data we track around the globe every day. Learn more about Economic Intelligence.

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    This week's results are based on around 40,000 survey interviews conducted November 4-10, 2020

    WEEK AT A GLANCE

    Morning Consult economist John Leer pulled out three key insights from the data this week:

    KEY TAKEAWAYS

    • U.S. consumer confidence fell in the wake of the 2020 election, as confidence among Republicans fell more sharply than it rose among Democrats.?Morning Consult’s daily U.S. Index of Consumer Sentiment reads 90.64 as of Nov. 10, down 1.42 points from last week. The decrease in confidence can be attributed to different reactions to the election results, as?first identified?in the immediate aftermath of the election. Confidence has fallen more among Republicans than it has increased among Democrats, leading to a net decrease in confidence, consistent with?earlier forecasts?that “partisan shifts in consumer confidence following the election are likely to be at least partially offset by counterbalancing shifts among consumers of the opposite party.” This post has an accompanying chart. View the chart.
    • Democrats are now more optimistic about the economy and their personal finances than Republicans for the first time in the history of this dataset.?On Nov. 8, the single-day, unsmoothed ICS among Democrats was 94.1, compared to 91.6 among Republicans. The election erased the gap in confidence that has existed since at least Jan. 1, 2018, and one that has persisted through the government shutdown in late 2018, the trade war with China in 2019 and the onset of the coronavirus pandemic earlier in 2020.
    • Partisan-driven changes in the ICS are set to stabilize. Tuesday marks the first day since the election when confidence among Republicans increased, indicating that political partisanship is less likely to influence consumer confidence going forward. However, once consumers across the political spectrum re-establish their new levels of steady state confidence, increases in the spread of the coronavirus in the United States are likely to exert additional downward pressure on consumer confidence in the coming weeks, similar to the current situation in Europe.

    View the breakout post on this week’s analysis

     

     

    NATIONAL TRENDS

    This week, consumers’ expectations for the future dropped while the evaluation of current conditions held steady.

    Daily U.S. Consumer Confidence Indices

    Reading this data: In order to gauge consumer sentiment, Morning Consult asks five questions relating to personal finances and business conditions in the country as a whole. The results from those five questions are then inputted into these three indices: The ICS is the overall measurement based on the results of all five questions; the ICC reflects consumers’ views of their current personal financial conditions and of current buying conditions for large household goods, and the ICE measures consumers’ expectations of their future personal financial conditions and business conditions in the country as a whole.

     

     

    STATE-LEVEL TRACKING

    Since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, consumer confidence has shifted dramatically in all 50 states. However, the precise magnitude and nature of those shifts vary in important ways. This map tracks state-by-state consumer sentiment since the beginning of the year, and it will be updated once a month to reflect the latest data.

    Monthly Consumer Confidence Tracking By State
    Updated: October 28, 2020

    Jan

    STATE LEVEL TAKEAWAYS

    • Consumer confidence in October decreased across a larger geographic footprint than it did in September, reflecting the ongoing increases in coronavirus cases across the country. For the month to date in October, 15 of the 50 states recorded a decrease in their ICS, three times as many as in September. The largest monthly percentage decreases in the ICS in October were in Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Idaho and Louisiana. With the exception of Louisiana, the number of new coronavirus cases is high and accelerating at some of the fastest paces in the country.
    • Confidence across six critical swing states moderately increased in October. The ICS in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin increased by 1.53% on average over the past month. The increase in Wisconsin is particularly curious since new per capita coronavirus cases are relatively high in that state. In September, the ICS increased by an average of 4.13% across these six states, which says that these consumers in these economies are entering a holding pattern similar to consumers across the country.?
    • A recent analysis of Morning Consult’s ICS among voters who went for President Barack Obama in 2012 and President Donald Trump in 2016 indicates that the economic effects of the pandemic may have lasting political effects. In each of the six swing states Morning Consult tracked — Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — consumer confidence among Obama-Trump voters started significantly higher than consumer confidence among all registered voters, but that gap narrowed during the pandemic. In other words, the economic outlook of Obama-Trump voters in these six states fell by more than it did across all registered voters.?

    "THIS IS THE FUTURE"

    Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi,?on Morning Consult Economic Intelligence’s Global Consumer Confidence tracking

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